Where I live we got locked down the entire province earlier this week.Unless one works in essential services including health care and the grocery store, then businesses are ordered closed and workers are told to stay at home.
Everything is closed except for hospitals, food stores, pharmacies, but restaurants can stay open for takeout only. Otherwise, there is no economic activity, none.
This will cause the ripple effect through the economy. Later this week, Air Canada announced 5000 layoffs, also a couple of automakers announced layoffs.
https://business.financialpost.com/transportation/autos/ford-gm-to-temporarily-close-canadian-auto-plants-to-curb-coronavirus-spread-as-martinrea-eyes-layoffs
This will hurt demand and is recessionary.
Then this is the same process going on in the American states of California, New York, Mass, and Illinois. Then we have to assume more states will go into lock down, go into zero economic activity mode, with mass layoffs.
Now we look at those graphs again. If one is a business person, this is highly alarming. How long will this coronavirus shutdown last? It will last the entire length of that curve.
A lot of business people and workers will get hurt.
We actually have an example of that graph in real time, Wuhan. As of today, Wuhan is still not back to normal. The rest of country is getting back to normal, but Wuhan has to play it safe.
Spike in unemployment filings overwhelms state systems
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/20/politics/state-unemployment-benefits-coronavirus/index.html
Trump administration asking states to delay release of unemployment numbers
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/20/politics/labor-department-states-unemployment-numbers-coronavirus/index.html
The US government is aware of the mass layoffs, and their impact on the economy. The American consumer drives the US economy. If the worker does not have a job, then economic growth will suffer. My impression is that things are in free fall. There are no numbers out yet, things are just happening too fast.
JP Morgan economist says U.S. GDP could drop 14% in second-quarter
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-jpmorgan-usa/jp-morgan-slashes-forecast-for-u-s-gdp-sees-14-second-quarter-drop-idUSKBN2153HU