A report released by the Pentagon in November claimed that China had expanded its nuclear capacity on land, sea and air, estimating the country could have up to 700 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2027 and at least 1,000 by 2030.
Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned just ahead of the publication of the report that China’s recent advances in hypersonic missile technology represent a “fundamental change” in the military balance of power – one that compels the US to pull off a similar leap in technological preparedness.
Other assessments, including a July report in The Washington Post about work on more than 100 construction sites that resembled existing launch facilities for nuclear-armed ballistic missiles in central China, added to these concerns. That report was based on a study of commercial satellite images by the California-based James Martin Centre for Nonproliferation Studies.
SCMP Global Impact Newsletter
By submitting, you consent to receiving marketing emails from SCMP. If you don't want these, tick here
US State Department spokesman Ned Price described the report as “concerning” and said that “it raises questions about [China’s] intent”.
Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has also expressed concern about China’s nuclear capability. In September, he referenced the construction of new missile silos by China that could significantly step up the country’s nuclear capabilities.
Speaking at a Nato conference on arms control issues organised in Copenhagen in September, Stoltenberg said: “As a global power, China has global responsibilities in arms control.”
Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg talks during a press conference following a meeting with Ukraine’s foreign minister at the EU headquarters in Brussels on December 16. Photo: AFP
Some analysts have said Washington’s harder line against the Chinese government, under US President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump, has prompted Beijing to prioritise the development of its military.
“China’s continued rise is coupled with growing disputes with Western countries over issues like human rights, democratic values, rule of law, and international norms,” Tong Zhao, a senior fellow in the nuclear policy programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said in an opinion piece in August.
“These developments have led Chinese leadership to conclude that China faces a new geopolitical reality in which Western countries are deliberately creating trouble and making up excuses to demonise and contain China,” Zhao said.
He added that China “has become more willing to invest in quantity, in addition to its traditional focus on quality” in terms of its nuclear arsenal.
Since November, the Biden administration has placed dozens of Chinese firms –including quantum computing and semiconductor companies, the world’s top commercial drone maker DJI Technology, and China’s Academy of Military Medical Sciences – on trade and investment blacklists.
Monday’s P5 statement also comes amid heightened tensions between Washington and Moscow.
Biden urged Russian leader Vladimir Putin to de-escalate tensions with Ukraine or else face “serious costs” during a phone call on Thursday, as the US and allies seek to coordinate their response to Moscow’s military build-up on the border with its western neighbour.