Russian opposition politician Ilya Ponomarev, whose group Congress of People's Deputies seeks the collapse of the Putin regime, recently told Newsweek he thought the Russian leader was aware of Prigozhin's plans and used them to his advantage,
While he did not know if the pair had concocted the plan together, Ponomarev believed that Putin had traded "tactical advantages for strategic costs" with the rebellion.
The idea of a choreographed mutiny has gained traction among some commentators although questions remain over how Putin could have known of an operation that, in the eyes of many, left him weakened.
Russian propaganda expert, Diane Nemec Ignashev, a professor at Carleton College in Minnesota, said that the Kremlin is trying to create a new narrative out of what happened.
"For anyone who was watching or listening as events unrolled, there was too much confusion in the media, too many crossed messages, too much speculation, for a playbook to have existed," she told Newsweek .
Russian state propaganda outlets are suddenly having to change tack, switching from praising the combat effectiveness of Wagner troops to condemning them and their leader Prigozhin. Images reportedly taken from his St. Petersburg home were used to mock the Wagner leader, revealing bundles of cash and an extensive wig collection.
"The Kremlin is attempting to cover up the obvious—Putin had no idea what was happening and this is a scenario no one in the media was prepared for," Ignashev added.
Gregory Vitarbo, a hstory professor at Meredith College in North Carolina, said that the optics of Prigozhin's advance on Moscow making Putin look weak left the idea that the mutiny was stage-managed "the least likely possibility."
Even in a restricted Russian media environment, "the contrast between Putin making an extraordinary national address promising ruthless resistance…only to then acquiesce to a deal brokered by his junior partner Lukashenko, cannot but be lost on a domestic audience," he told Newsweek .
Little is known about the immunity deal Prigozhin got apart from his exile to Belarus and the dropping of legal action against him and his fighters.
Prigozhin's presence in Russia and his meeting with Putin likely indicate that they are still working out the details of the deal and planning Wagner's future role, said Tom Roberts, assistant professor of Russian, East European & Eurasian Studies at Smith College in Northampton, Massachusetts.
"It seems unlikely that Putin knew of the mutiny plot in advance, let alone that he could have staged the rebellion as a provocation or loyalty test, as there is far too much at stake for the Russian president," he told Newsweek .
Russian aircraft were destroyed, and both Wagner forces and the Russian military suffered casualties.
"I find it odd that Putin and Prigozhin would have openly welcomed additional death and destruction within Russia while they were wreaking havoc in Ukraine," Mark Temnycky , non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, told Newsweek . "Prigozhin had initially thought he had greater support from high-ranking Russian officials and military officers who did not come to his aid when he launched his insurrection."
"It is possible Putin and those loyal to him learned about the attack, and they quickly undermined Prigozhin's support," he said. "This caught Wagner off guard, and at that point, Wagner was too far involved in this operation. Prigozhin likely believed that he could not turn back."