The grouping is not just held together by postcolonial grievances, but as its economic heft has grown, it has become a voice of the aspirations of the Global South today. The expansion of the group only adds to its representation of diverse voices and financial firepower.
www.scmp.com
Opinion
Outside InbyDavid Dodwell
Expanded Brics could be successor to the non-aligned movement
The grouping is not just held together by postcolonial grievances, but as its economic heft has grown, it has become a voice of the aspirations of the Global South today
The expansion of the group only adds to its representation of diverse voices and financial firepower
From the left, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Chinese President Xi Jinping, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov pose for a group photo during the Brics Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, on August 23. Photo: AP
Sceptics used to joke that theAsia-Pacific Economic Cooperation(Apec) forum was an adjective in search of a noun. Others turn to the Brics bloc and ask: “Brics is all very well, but where is the mortar?”
As South Africa hosted the 15th Brics summit this week in Johannesburg, the mortar question has been in the air: what binds a grouping of five countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – that have so little in common? Or thesix countries– Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – that will become members of the group next year?
In the Financial Times, associate editor Janan Ganesh has a mischievous but plausible explanation: “grievance: against western primacy, against past slights”. He is not wrong, but there are other adhesive forces hard at work.
First, Brics is a grouping that has outgrown its name. It has the potential to become the modern-day equivalent of thenon-aligned movement.
Born out of the 1955 Bandung Conference in Indonesia, that movement of newly independent nations, which grew to encompass 120 members, insisted on sidestepping the two Cold War power blocs and their military instruments – Nato and the Warsaw Pact.
Chinese premier Zhou Enlai and Indian prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru at the Bandung Conference on April 23, 1955. Photo: UPI
This week, in a nationally televisedaddress, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said Brics members sought “a world that is more equitable, balanced and governed by an inclusive system of global governance”. He added that “the value of Brics extends beyond the interests of its current members” and that “an expanded Brics will represent a diverse group of nations with different political systems that share a common desire to have a more balanced global order”.
From its first formal meeting in 2009, the Brics bloc has grown substantially – from about 25 per cent of global gross domestic product in 2010 to around 32 per cent this year in purchasing power parity terms – though almost all of this growth came from China and India. The six new members will lift this share to 37 per cent, according to Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
This increase in economic significance has been mirrored in developing economies worldwide. In 1992, advanced economies accounted for 57.8 per cent of global GDP and emerging markets 42.2 per cent but, by 2023, this balance had flipped: emerging economies account for 58.9 per cent and advanced economies 41.1 per cent.
DAILY
Opinion Newsletter
Thought-provoking commentary and Op-ed content, curated daily by our world-class editorial team.
With rising economic significance has come an expectation of a stronger voice in international organisations and more significant influence on the rules of international trade and investment. The five Brics members share this ambition, and recognise that they speak on behalf of a much larger grouping of countries.
People pass a table with the flags of South Africa, Brazil, Russia, India and China during the Brics summit at the Sandton Convention Centre in Johannesburg, on August 24. Photo: AFP
So while grievances are a Brics binding force, these are not just the postcolonial resentments that drew non-aligned movement members together in the 1950s.
More modern grievances include a sense of undeserved hardships suffered due to the USbanking crisisin 2008; advanced economies’ dominance of seats and voting power in the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank; selfishness during the Covid-19 pandemic overaccess to vaccines; and, failure to honour promises to providefinancial supportfor developing economies struggling to manage the impacts of global warming.
They also include anxiety over the US’ increasing preference for unilateral “settlement” of disputes, thedismantlingof the role of the World Trade Organization in settling trade disagreements, and theweaponisation of the US dollarin delivering financial sanctions.
These grievances were apparent when the UN General Assemblyvoted in Marchlast year to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Over 50 governments, all from the Global South, voted against the resolution, abstained or were absent.
Beyond grievances are a list of common objectives and concerns. First is a shared determination to develop “true multilateralism”, or what Chinese President Xi Jinping calls “the democratisation of international relations”, by reforming or building on international institutions – the United Nations, IMF, World Bank and WTO – and reconfiguring the global financial architecture.
Brics nations object to the rich West overpowering decision-making. And they are adamant on non-interference and respect for other countries’ sovereignty – no matter how obviously Russia has flouted this rule.
Brics members have managed to subordinate their profound differences to this list. China may have become the group’s most dominant economy by far, and is host to theNew Development Bank, but Beijing tempers antagonism by casting its role as using Brics’ influenceon behalf of the Global Southas a whole.
South Africa’s Minister of International Relations and Cooperation Grace Naledi Pandor (left) greets Senegalese President Macky Sall at a Brics state banquet at the Gallagher Estate Convention Centre in Johannesburg, South Africa, on August 23. South Africa invited many African leaders to the Brics summit. Photo: EPA-EFE
So what has been achieved at this summit? On the issue of a newcurrencyto rival the US dollar, not a lot. Instead Brics leaders will encourage more settlement of bilateral trade inlocal currencies.
Expansion of formal membership to 11 has come as the biggest surprise. Argentina will strengthen the Latin American voice; Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE not only represent the Middle East, but also deliver financial firepower in support of the New Development Bank. Ethiopia brings Africa to the table. And Iran delivers a stick in the eye to the US.
Ramaphosa said other countries would be admitted once the core countries agree on criteria. Around 40 nations were in the queue before the summit.
South Africa chairing the G20 in 2025 suggests there will be efforts to align the Brics agenda with that of the G20, but Russia hosting the Brics summit in 2024 raises questions about short-term continuity. Meanwhile, the Brics acronym has clearly outlived its useful life. Expect a new name soon.
David Dodwell is CEO of the trade policy and international relations consultancy Strategic Access, focused on developments and challenges facing the Asia-Pacific over the past four decades