as long as China don't dedollarize, it is hard to escape from this trap
Replying to: China must cut US treasuries in ‘orderly’ fashion -- Khan Post ReplyForum


swoosh

12/18/2023, 15:59:38




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Every month China is bringing in more and more dollars from trade surplus, and whatever China do with it will only strenghten the dollars. If you park it in US treasury, you are lending it back to the US, keeping its economy afloat. If you use it to purchase goods from the US, you are helping its economy. If you use it to invest in or purchase goods from other countries, you are spreading dollars around the world and strengthening dollar role as global currency. Even BRI, done with dollar, is helping dollar keeping its status as global currency.

 

To escape from this trap, reducing US treasuries in orderly fashion alone is not enough. China need to cut its reliance on dollar in international trade. That's why China is internationalizing yuan and cutting swap deals around the world. But the big question is what about the trade with the US that keep bringing in the massive dollar bills? what is China going to do with the dollars that it receive? I doubt the US will want to use Yuan to trade with China, and China can't force the US to use Yuan, and trade with the US still constitute a significant portion of China GDP.

What Yu propose is to use it to purchase goods from the US rather than just park it in treasury. I actually agree with him. While it will certainly strengthening US economy, trade is a win win for both, because China will get the goods that it need, like food, gas etc, instead of just IOU paper.

The other alternative is to decouple from the US, and reducing trade, hence reducing the dollar inflow. But that is the worst option, since it is a lose lose situation.

Another option is to reroute the trade, by trading more with other countries, like ASEAN for example, using Yuan and their currencies, by supplying them with parts that they can assembly in their factories and export to the US. In other words, creating a trade buffer.  That way China can still trade with the US indirectly, and instead of receiving dollars, China will have to receive some ASEAN currencies. It is more costly since there is middlemen now, and certainly more risky for China because China has to free float Yuan in order to freely exchange with the ASEAN currencies, but the upside is that it will probably lift ASEAN economy to prosperity which mean, now China has another rich market that are just next door, to export to. This is already happening too, that's why Xi has just visited Vietnam.

In my checklist, China is doing every thing right, albeit in much slower fashion, or as Yu called it, orderly fashion. I don't know if it is orderly or just slow to be honest, LOL.

 

What I want from China is for China to open more of its capital market and establish itself as the capital market and trading house of the world. Let the rich Arabs, South East Asians, Latin American and African money into Chinese stock exchange. Let Chinese banks to manage their wealth. Let them own some of Chinese companies through Chinese investment banks. It will create more white collar jobs in China. Certainly beat letting the American banks owning Chinese companies through US stock exchange.

China should also establish a global commodity market in China. Let the Russian, Iranian, Venezuelan and others sell their energy and commodity in Chinese commodity market freely, in Yuan. Let the world buy and sell them through Chinese commodity market.

China has the window of opportunity here. Russian sanction has made the world fear the dollar domination and Russian oil difficult to sell even though there are plenty of buyers that want to buy it.

If China do this, uncle sam will be furious for sure, and may go further to sabotage China rise. But the US is already doing that anyway. China don't want to be a frog that is getting boiled unknowingly. Being reckless is bad, but sometimes, once in a lifetime opportunity will come, and fate will favor the brave.






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