When there is vacuum of power, others will seek to fill it. What happen in middle east is actually predictable. When the US abandon it, and focus on its pivot on Asia, other players like Saudi, Turkey, Iran, and Israel seek to take over. Their survivability depend on it. Israel also sense that the world is in chaos, the international institutions like UN and ICC are fast losing influence, the big guys act freely with impunity. So what better time for Israel to pound Palestinians to oblivion than now, hamas just gave them the excuse. Through out history, when the hegemon grip weaken, the rules of game become obsolete. Now every powerful player seek to take as much as gain as possible to seek better position in the new world order.

We are not in world war 3 yet, that really depend on how China-US relationship evolve. If the relationship ended in conflict, then yes, it is world war 3. You will see China increase the support to Russia militarily massively. Currently, America is doing its best to not get drag into conflicts militarily whether it is in middle east or Europe. Because America know if that happen, they can kiss good bye their chance of containing China. America is saving its last strength for China. But China is also in a tightrope situation. The Ukraine-Russia war forced the Europeans to take American side. That is bad news. Russia is the only credible ally of China in facing the US. But now, China can't do much to help Russia unless it want EU to become enemy. Having India as enemy is also not good, because now America has a chess pawn in Indian Ocean to block China. China need to be careful of not repeating this with ASEAN. On the other hand, China also can't afford to appear weak in dealing with them. It is difficult to balance indeed. The good news is that what happen in Gaza actually turn the global south and many in the liberal west against the US. They are outrage for Israel impunity to commit genocide, and the US support for Israel.

But I'm actually pretty curious about China response on all these events. For all the narratives about China threat out there, and Fu Manchu syndrome, China is actually a pretty responsible power and restraining itself from disturbing the collapsing world order further more. China can give more support to Russia or Syria or Venezuela or Iran or North Korea etc, but China didn't do that. Instead China play it nicely with the west, even though they keep throwing accusations that China is doing this doing that and threatening the world peace. China appear almost naively. I don't know if this is good or not. Avoiding unnecessary conflict to save strength is good, but sometimes you need to act decisively and ruthlessly to seize the chance in front of you. While China has been restraining itself from supporting Russia, the EU through NATO keep provoking China, sending European warships to South China Sea, trying to establish an ASEAN NATO. Maybe time to play a little rougher against them.

My main worry about China is the lack of preparation for conflict. I mean, yeah, militarily, the PLA is developing nicely. But what about the civilian side. Have they been training for war? Do they know what to do if war break out? I never heard about them training and prepare for air raids. What about mandatory military service for the youngs? More importantly, what about the economy? Have they been prepared for when the war break out? Do business people have plan B or C or D if war break out? Watching them make me feel like they are thinking wars won't affect them. The fact that many of those businesses still looking to expand their businesses in the US make me think that they don't read newspaper. The same thing with many Chinese heading to the US to either study or work. I'm pretty sure if war break out, they will be the first one to be sent to the internment camp just like the American Japanese in WW2.